Lukka Indices Now Power Settlement for Gemini’s Crypto Prediction Markets
Executive Summary
Lukka indices now power settlement for Gemini’s crypto prediction markets. Contracts on Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, HYPE and Zcash track and settle to Lukka indices on Gemini Predictions, Gemini’s CFTC-regulated prediction market.
When each contract closes, the Lukka index determines its final settlement value. That gives every outcome a consistent, transparent reference price, from five-minute markets to daily ones.
What Is Gemini Predictions?
Gemini Predictions is Gemini’s prediction market, where traders buy contracts on the outcome of real-world events. It operates through Gemini Titan, which the CFTC designated as a contract market in December 2025.
Its crypto markets ask simple questions: will Bitcoin be up or down in the next five minutes, or where will Zcash trade at 4pm CT tomorrow? Each contract pays out based on the price of the asset when it closes.
How It Works
Gemini runs the market. Lukka provides the reference price the market settles to.
- Gemini lists the contract. Each crypto contract sets a question and a price to beat, and Gemini’s market sets the odds as traders take positions.
- Lukka publishes the index. Throughout the contract, the chart tracks the Lukka index for that asset, a one-minute average price that is separate from Gemini’s live market price.
- The contract settles to Lukka. When the contract closes, the Lukka index determines its final settlement value, and with it which outcome pays.
Why Trusted Settlement Matters
In a prediction market, the settlement price decides every outcome. A price that spikes on one venue, drifts between intervals, or can’t be explained after the fact puts every payout in question.
Short-dated markets raise the stakes. Gemini’s five- and fifteen-minute contracts settle continuously, so the reference price is tested more than a thousand times a day.
A regulated venue raises them again. The settlement source has to be transparent in its method, consistent at every interval, separate from the venue’s own order book, and defensible to anyone who asks how a number was produced.
What Lukka Brings
For more than a decade, Lukka has delivered institutional-grade digital asset data to exchanges, asset managers, fund administrators and auditors: the firms that need numbers they can stand behind.
Lukka Benchmarks provides settlement rates and benchmarks for derivatives, structured products and institutional trading. It is built on documented methodologies, pricing inputs from Lukka market data spanning 140+ exchanges, and controls backed by AICPA SOC 1 and SOC 2 Type I and Type II examinations.
Supporting the Next Generation of Prediction Markets
The same infrastructure behind Gemini’s crypto markets is available to any firm building or trading event contracts.
Prediction market venues
Settle contracts to an independent, institutional-grade reference price, with a methodology you can show to traders and regulators.
Exchanges and brokers
Launch event contracts and other derivatives on benchmarks and settlement rates delivered in real time, intraday or end of day.
Trading firms and market makers
Price and hedge positions against the same Lukka index a contract will settle to.
Fintechs and trading apps
Offer prediction markets to customers with a settlement source that holds up to institutional scrutiny.
Talk to Our Team
Prediction markets are becoming market infrastructure, and every contract is only as credible as the data that settles it. Lukka is proud to support Gemini as regulated prediction markets scale.
Launching or scaling a market that needs a trusted settlement price? Talk to our team.
About Lukka
Founded in 2014, Lukka is a unified, end-to-end platform for institutions working with digital assets. Lukka brings digital asset data, pricing and valuation, benchmarks, blockchain analytics and compliance, accounting, and reporting together in one place, so the numbers behind every workflow are consistent, traceable, and audit-ready. Financial institutions, exchanges, asset managers, fund administrators, auditors, and government agencies use Lukka to run their digital asset operations with confidence.
Lukka’s institutional control and assurance framework includes AICPA SOC 1 Type I & Type II Service Organization Controls, AICPA SOC 2 Type I & Type II Service Organization Controls, ISO 27001 – ISO/IEC 27001 Certification, NIST Cybersecurity Assessment Complete, and an IOSCO Financial Benchmarks Statement of Adherence.
Visit lukka.tech to learn more, and follow Lukka on LinkedIn and X.